Economics Nightmare Far From Over, But Market Bottom Nearing

The broad stock markets are now within an important timing window for a major low. Next month – April could possibly mark the low for stocks for the year. I can’t tell you exactly where the low will come in, but I do know that it will bottom next month, then a stage for a multi-month powerful rally.

Oil has bottomed. It will likely hit US$50 net, then US$75-80 level. Keep in mind, oil likes gold, tends to lead the economy, not lag it. The fundamental explanations from the media will come after the fact. As long as gold can bold at $891, it has the potential to move to as high as $1,250 an ounce on its next leg up. While one could argue that the US dollar is firm, I see this more of short-term and very soon we will see a protracted decline in the greenback as the Fed’s flooding of the economy and monetization of debt begins to inflate asset prices and deflate the dollar.

The long term bond markets are a disaster in the making, especially long-term US treasury bonds with at least US$2 trillion in debt auctions this year from the Treasury.

After all these years in market, I know that beneath the surface of every bear market lies new scams being hatched …All told, I count at least 130 new scams lurking out there right now – along with many old scams with new twists.

On the other side of coin, more graduates have joined the jobless ranks as companies hit by the economic downturn shed workers. In Singapore, the number of degree holders who lost their jobs rose sharply to 14,800, or 21 per cent in December, up from 6,200, or 14 per cent a year ago, according to the Ministry of Manpower labour market report released on Monday. The BBC reported that there is now an average of 10 jobseekers for every vacancy advertised in the UK. The situation is worst in the south east of England, where the trade union body said its research found 60 people chasing each job. Meanwhile, Australia has said it will cut the number of skilled foreign workers it accepts by 14% to safeguard local jobs. Immigration Minister Chris Evans announced the cut, the first by the country in 10 years.

The unemployed desperate to find new jobs. Even those gainfully employed, but worried about their jobs and those seeking second incomes from part-time jobs and even home-biz opportunities. Small and medium-sized businesses looking for short-term credit lines and financing needs. Senior citizens are especially vulnerable to scams today because they largely rely on fixed incomes – where interest rates are now effectively zero.