Thailand – Red versus Green

Without military into action, current dead-lock will remain. General Anupong, the Army’s chief made it clear on April 12 that he was opposed to another crackdown on red shirt demonstrators, instead favouring the house dissolution and the use of political measures to solve the impasse. The use of force will lead to more deaths, and more importantly will break army right in the middle.

Military controls essentially have turned weaker after the first clash with the Red Army. Certain battalions especially right outside Bangkok have voiced their dissatisfaction through the command and there is a good likelihood that the chain of command could be compromised, if being stressed further. Their dissatisfaction with current government is increasing because of pressure from the government to use force to end the protests. Both field commanders and senior officers oppose the use of the military to end the rallies. To kill is easy, but what happen next is with far more implications - soldiers will become their targets after the crackdown. That will bring the country closer to civil war. And there will be more red shirts coming out in other provinces.

The Red spirit will turn bolder as they know for the fact that Abhisit’s government at most can do is to threaten and cannot push boundary more than being set.

Chairman of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) Veera Musigkapong said on Wednesday that the rally against the government by red-shirts will soon come to an end as UDD agrees with the national reconciliation plan proposed by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. He announced in a television appearance on Monday night that a general election would be held on Nov14. The government has shown spirit in taking one step backwards but the outcome remains uncertain.

The role of military will remain crucial and it has become the norm for change of political leadership and government. The modernization and strengthening of the armed forces has led only to an increase in the political power of the military elite, strengthening their advantage in the struggle for state power while personalization of politics bred factionalism within the armed forces.