Friday, December 26, 2008

10 Uneasy Questions about Asia

Here are 10 questions for Asia that seem critical to the future of the most dynamic retion in the world:-

Q1. India and China are rising fast, but what are the big ideas they stand for? China has given up communism and India has given up its cold-war dalliance and is between now market and socialism.

Q2. Can India be used by the United States to contain China? This is fashionable belief but one cannot ignore the fact that America has an overwhelming military cooperation with India, but we cannot also ignore the fact that China is now India’s second-largest trading partner behind the US. Pragmatism can overwhelm ideology.

Q3. If India is not the answer to China, how about Japan? Japan now resembles Britain, an island off the coast of a continent, viewed as closer to Washington than to its neighbors. Japan, however is paying a heavy diplomatic price, worsening Chinese-Japanese relations.

Q4. What about Japanese past? We have seen riots erupted in China, South Korea and Taiwan fueled by fury at Japanese attempts to gloss over the savagery that marked Japanese’s occupations of the countries. Japan has not achieved Germany’s reconciliation with its neighbors.

Q5. Can China keep the lid on things? Pressure is growing on the system – from the widening gap between rich and poor, from the poison in the air spread by uncontrolled industries and from the friction of a quasi-free economic system meeting a closed political system bent on control. The Beijing Olympics 2008 and the Shanghai Expo of 2010 provide huge incentives for stability.

Q6. Will China deliver on North Korea? Chinese is committed to a successful outcome, but they don’t like American arms sales to Taiwan, American lectures on democracy and American threats of trade sanctions.

Q7. Are China’s choices of a market economy and the presence of US forces enough to keep the peace in Asia? The Chinese market economy spreads prosperity, multiplies ties and creates huge peace incentives. The American troops offset regional rivalries but Asia needs to become more of a community and less a mere accumulation of booming states.

Q8. Can China and the US deepen their ties? Current signs are not encouraging, but the need is over-whelming.

Q9. Can Indonesia be Asia’s Turkey – an example to the world of a democratic Muslim country where Islamic radicalism is marginalized? Yes, if US heavy-handedness is avoided and the inevitable emergence of moderate Islamic parties is encouraged. America must coax rather than lecture.

Q10. Are Australia and New Zealand part of Asia? Inclusiveness is in Asia’s interest. As Europe has realized, when we create broad institutions, the possibilities for absorbing nationalist tensions multiply.

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